Monday 22 September 2014

Scotland's Victory

My reflections on the outcome of the Scottish referendum on independence.

Scotland 2
England 0
Wales -1
Northern Ireland (depends who's side you are on.)

Conservatives 1
Labour -3
UKIP -2
Lib dem 1
United Kingdom more of a 'no score draw' than it has ever been (possibly unsustainable.)

Explanation
Scotland has 'bounced' the Westminster politicians into giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, thus weakening Labour's hold south of the border.  Scotland gets more control without having to take responsibility for it's economic future.

The press talks about 'English votes for English laws'.  But what about Welsh MPs?  Wales has less devolution, but the mix of who should vote for what is complicated. Wales is now more of a minority nation with England.

The case for Northern Ireland is weakened by the outcome.  An independent Scotland would have forced the issue.  The current fudge prolongs the status quo, which may be helpful as political change can benefit from the passage of time.

Labour now has the prospect of not being able to control England.  It's main hope is that the conservative party splits under the influence of UKIP.

A YES vote would have created a much clearer cleaner outcome.  Not very British though.

I think the current state is in unstable equilibrium, and will fail.  I predict Scottish independence is on the cards, followed by Welsh independence.  Northern Ireland will become an autonomous province jointly administered by Ireland and UK governments, slowly moving more towards Ireland as the years go by.


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